DERBY 129 PROFILES

1) Supah Blitz - I kind of like this horse because no one else does but it never has put together a super race and it has never beaten a great horse. The thing that scares me is it has a female jockey. Can anybody imagine a female beating Bailey or Day or Espinoza? Neither can I. Horse has late speed which like I said scares me at the derby because of how crowded it is it may never find its way but I think this horse will finish in the top 5.
My recommendation: I will have it in some boxes play it at the end of exotics.

2) Brancusi - This horse has a jockey I have never heard of. I am hoping he gets the services of a decent jockey by derby time because I really like this horse. This horse ran its best two races the last two times out against great competition. This horse appears to have some serious early speed and we all saw what a horse can do if not pressed at the beginning of the derby (in case your forgot see War Emblem) Hard to knock this horse but also hard to really like it especially with Farina riding it.
My recommendation: Will be in some of my boxes.

3) Sir Cherokee - This horse won at 55- 1 last time out in the Arkansas DerbyThat should tell you how bad the competition was. . It is also a half brother to Kafwain. This no name owner/trainer/jockey combo gives me nothing to like about this horse. It did have a 106 Beyer last time out but I don't like the super late speed in the derby, too hard to overcome 14 horses from the back and find room.
My recommendation: Never

4) Atswhatimtalkinabout - I really like this horse and even though he did not run his best race out last time (98 Beyer) the competition on that race was 3 of my 4 favorite horses in this race. I expect much of the same in this race. This horse has an awesome bloodline for anybody that is interested. Flores get the mount like he has every time on this horse so there should really be no surprises he will push the top 5.
My recommendation: Will be in my boxes.

5) Peace Rules - Another Frankel trained horse. This horse is hard to knock on anything. It has run against stellar competition and put up good speed ratings. This horse falls into the trap of probably being the second choice on the board. I honestly think this is the best horse in the field as far as all around. The only thing chasing me away is the odds are not going to be high enough to warrant too much wagering.
My recommendation: This horse will be in most all of my wagers, usually second or in first with longer shots

6) Funny Cide - I once liked this horse a lot until I actually looked at the past performance and saw this horse does not own anything higher than a stakes victory. It ran an awesome 110 last time out in the race with Empire Maker but the rest of that field was absolute crap. When matched up with other horses in this field it plain out lost. This horse has never won at Grade I, II, or III. I will pass.
My recommendation: Others appear more likely.

7) Offlee Wild - I like this horse even though there is no real statistical reason why I will try to explain. This horse use to have huge hype and thought to have lots of potential. The fact that they still are running it in the derby intrigues me. The horse has been unspectacular of late not really losing bad or winning big. Right now I have no idea what jockey this horse will get. That could determine how much I bet on it.
My recommendation: In my boxes

8) Buddy Gil - After winning three straight races and having Beyer's of better than 100 each time what is not to like. Those wins also came against some of the better competition here. Gary Stevens rides this horse so there is no worry in that department. In fact this horse has not lost since Stevens took the ropes. With Kafwain out this is my favorite horse.
My recommendation: I really like this horse he is going on top of all my Exacta's and Tri's

9) Indian Express - A few years ago I bet on this horses Sire Indian Charlie and I lost but Indian Charlie did take third in the derby. This horse has only run in the United States twice and turned in two good performances. Last time out he finished sandwiched between Buddy Gil and Kafwain even though he was 33- 1. He could be a really good value play in derby and has a good jockey in Baze on him. Oh did I mention Bob Baffert?
My recommendation: Will be in my boxes.

10) Lone Star Sky - This horse has never seen over a 100 Beyer in its career. It has ran against some good competition but in those races never cracked the top 3. No named trainer scares me a little too. The horse is well raced but I doubt that comes into play here.
My recommendation: "pari-mutuel" Someone else's money will be mine.

11) Domestic Dispute - This horse is a late addition to my watch list but looks like he will run. He looks pretty solid overall and has a Baffert backing. He has never beaten anybody that I consider a contender but has always finished right behind them. Here is my question? Which jockey is going to ride him. I doubt they will find a jockey that will improve his last outing. Without improvement I will pass.
My recommendation: Going to turn my head the other way

12) Empire Maker - Will go off as the favorite. Owns consectives Beyers over 100 and two impressive victories and rising Beyers. Will have the services of the best Jockey and Trainer tandem in the business. What does not impress me is the lack of competition he has faced. This horse could very well be the best horse out their but will likely be lower than 2- 1 come post time and in my humble opinion has no value.
My recommendation: If you are going to play him at all do it in Tri's and Super's at 3rd place or lower.

13) Eye of the Tiger- Why is this horse here? Don't get me wrong the horse has ran fine but against inferior competition. I would not touch Scrimshaw and Scrimshaw is undefeated against this horse so that should tell you my feelings. Maybe if this horse has a Baffert/Bailey/Lewis connection I would consider it but not with the current connections.
My recommendation: Horse will not take last but I am not betting it.

14) Ten Cents a Shine - This horse is by far the worse horse on paper I have ever seen and that is what makes me like it. Seriously, D. Wayne Lukas trained and the owners and Lukas like him here why shouldn't I? I would be curious to see who gets the mount on this horse but I am definitely intrigued. This horse is also familiar with Churchill Downs.
My recommendation: Will be in some of my boxes.

15) Outta Here - This horse forgot to finish its race last time out. That does not really bother me but the fact it never has eclipsed the 100 Beyer mark does scare me. It has a big time jockey but that is no enough to make me look past the fact it has never won a graded race. This horse has not even competed in the same class as the other horses here. Its last race was across seas. I am not sure what that means considering I have never seen a horse run in the US and then hop over for its final prep and then comeback but I am not getting near it.
My recommendation: Avoid.

16) Ten Most Wanted - This horse will probably be the third betting choice on derby day. Why? I do not know this horse does not impress me very much at all. No one was talking about this horse and then it ran a Beyer of 110 last time out against a crappy Grade II Illinois Debry field. This horse owns no impressive victories and besides having the services of Pat Day I find nothing to hold my interest.
My recommendation: Pat Day will not make me any money this year (just like every other derby)

17) Scrimshaw - This horse has no business being here. D. Wayne Lukas or not this horse has no good victories. He does own a 104 Beyer in a race but that 7 months ago. This horse seems to have a different jockey every time out which leaves me to believe no one knows how to ride him. He did win his last race and does have a good owner- jockey combonation. This horse is kind of a front runner so anything could be possible if you break good but I am going to pass.
My recommendation: If you are rolling in the dough add him to the end of your exotics.I won't

Projection:
First: 8-Buddy Gil
Second: 5-Peace Rules
Third: 4-Atswhatimtalkinabout
Fourth: 9-Indian Express